Posted on October 14, 2021
Today’s trade involves an underlying we’ve been stalking for nearly two months.
So why now?
Today, our prey appears weaker, tired, like a wounded doe limping through the woods, desperately seeking its mother, but alas! without hope of ever finding her – moreover, the forest chill is deepening, and night is falling.
Anyway, the outfit is called TriNet Group (NYSE:TNET) and they claim to offer human resource services for small business…
But we know better.
Because there is no small business anymore.
After the Batflu tyrants.
But more on that soon.
Fundamentally speaking, TNET trades –
The company will announce earnings after the close on October 25th, but our feeling is the die is already cast.
After the most volatile year for small business in a century, earnings predictability for companies like TNET is approaching NIL. Management all but admits it.
This is a corporate entity that has managed to stoke share-buying by keeping its media profile artificially buoyant.
By announcing every few weeks some very famous person as the latest addition to their “PeopleForce Roster of Esteemed Speakers”.
Regular press releases with A-listers works wonders.
Until it doesn’t.
Have a look at the chart –
This is the daily for the last six months, and it presents a stock –
And that’s all we’re anticipating.
It’s a relatively simply structured affair…
Like this –
A Jew and His Gold recommends you consider selling the TNET December 17th 95/100 CALL spread* for a credit of $2.30 (8.30/6.00) and purchasing the TNET December 17th 100/95 PUT spread** for $2.60 (6.50/3.90). Total debit on the trade is $0.30.
Rationale: We have here a remarkable opportunity to turn $0.30 into $4.70 (1567%) in a relatively short time frame. That’s our maximum gain.
And best of all, we need a decline of just 4.6% to accomplish it!
Maximum loss on the trade is $5.30 (difference between the CALL strikes plus the initial debit).
The market is wavering and options expiry is Friday.
It could break soon.
G-d in Heaven is watching.
Get with it.
Many happy returns!