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Wrap it Up: Quick and Dirty Speculative Roll on Graphic Packaging (GPK)

Posted on October 21, 2021

We waste no time!

The bats are falling, the people are waking and the criminal element will hang!

They don’t believe they’ll hang…

But they’ll hang.

Our trade for today is based on the Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK), makers of coatings, laminates and paperboards to keep your store-bought poisons looking fresh.

They’d do better to fold their $6.2 billion operation (by market cap) and encourage you to buy from a local farmer.

But that’s neither here nor there…

The company’s fundamentals are not catastrophic, though it does carry too much debt, and hasn’t really earned much over the last while.

To wit –

  • P/E is 25.94 (high for a simple manufacturer),
  • Dividend Yield is 1.46%,
  • Price to Book is 3.33,
  • Debt/Equity is 2.06, and
  • EPS dropped by 14.70% this year, while
  • Q/Q Earnings growth was a negative 30.80%!

So why all the ruckus?

Why a better than 100% rise in the stock off the Batflu bottom last March?

How can a stock like this maintain a following?

Oyster-shucked if we know…

But we don’t believe it will last.

Earnings are set to be released next Tuesday (26 October), and analyst estimates are falling.

We ascribe to the lower end of those estimates and expect a surprise that snaps price lower – in the near-term, at least.

Take a look at the chart –

With faith and trust that the Master of Legions will destroy the criminal murderers among us swiftly, justly, mida-k’neged-mida.

Many happy returns!

Matt McAbby

 

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