BLACKOUT! Solar Panels Fail, Stocks Plunge (FSLR)

Here in the Holy Land of Israel we have a problem.

Essentially, we have a bunch of nutbars running the country, who don’t have any feeling for kedusha, not to mention any fear of G-d.

It’s a big problem.

And not only for us.

Because when Jews don’t submit themselves entirely to the will of Hashem – when they decide according to their own calculations what’s best and what’s true and what’s appropriate – not only do they themselves suffer, but they bring ruin to the world at large.

Why?

Because the world is a spiritual entity, created by the Al-mighty, and it runs according to His spiritual rules.

Jews have a special obligation, therefore – a chosen obligation, you might say – to adhere to those rules and to encourage others to do the same.

So if you want the world to get out of the mess it’s currently sliding into, and to thrive in every conceivable manner…

Encourage the Jew to do his part.

To be a Jew.

With all his heart, soul and might.

The way G-d intended.

Because nothing else will save us.

Or Solar Panels…

Our trade today uses First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) as underlying, because photovoltaic, cadmium telluride solar module technology should always create more problems than it solves.

Oh?

You hadn’t heard about the toxic chemicals in solar panels?

The electromagnetic radiation that issues therefrom?

The silicon dust?

No matter, friends.

We’re talking investments today.

Money, Money, Money!

Stock in First Solar soared recently after tax credits and other benefits from last month’s Inflation Reduction Act gave the company incentive to invest in new capacity.

And that’s precisely what First Solar immediately announced.

In a move it knew would send the stock flying, the company publicized its intention to build a new plant in the U.S. for $1 billion.

But it went too far…

And now, fundamentally, FSLR’s shares –

• Sport a P/E of 76.95 (gasp!),
• Offer no dividend,
• Carry a P/B of 2.46,
• Are expected to LOSE money next quarter (analysts are projecting an EPS of –$0.24),
• Posted sales growth of just 0.10% per year over the last five years, and
• A Q/Q EPS LOSS of 32.50% in its latest earnings report.

O.K., not so great.

So, what about the chart?

Technically…

1. RSI is overbought, and has been for nearly a month (in green).  That’s simply unsustainable, but the question of when investors come to appreciate that is still open.  We’ve let it ride this long (without opening a trade) because there’s a tendency on the part of these sexy, futuristic and “exciting” companies to go riptide looney for extended periods.  It looks like the shine is about to come off, though.
2. Why?  First, because we have a slight divergence from both RSI and MACD indicators against price (which we expect to become more pronounced shortly), an indication that bullish momentum is waning.
3. We also see a massive increase in volume on the run-up to the latest highs (in black), a sure sign that new (less intelligent) buyers have entered the arena.  We’ve had multiple days with 4x the average daily level of business – and technicians have taken note.
4. Price itself has climbed by 130% in under two months, leaving gaps (in purple) that will have to be filled.  It may not happen by the time our trade is closed – but it will happen.
5. In the last two sessions we’ve seen (in blue):
   1. a doji – or perhaps a ‘spinning top’ (hard to define these things scientifically, though they’re equally bearish) – a candle that very often speaks of an intermediate high, and
   2. a bearish engulfing pattern, a reversal formation with a reasonable track record of predictability.
6. A very steep trend-line is now in place (in red) that serves as immediate support.  It’s currently at 130 (and rising).  If that line fails, we’ll likely get selling through 120, at the rising short-term MA.
7. After that, strong support emerges at the bunched MAs in the 90 range (in brown).

And it’s toward that level we expect price to descend.

So…

A Jew and His Money recommends you consider selling the FSLR November 18^th 135/140 CALL spread* for a credit of $2.10 (13.50/11.40) and buying the FSLR November 18^th 100 PUT for $2.04.  Total credit on the affair is $0.06.

[*Sell the 135 CALL and buy the 140 CALL.]

Rationale: six cents buys an unknown maximum profit, though theoretically it could be $100.06 (should the company go bankrupt).

Max loss is $4.94 (difference between the CALL strikes less the initial credit).

According to the charts, FSLR could very well plumb below 100, but what’s more likely is that we’ll close the trade on any early (and steep) decline, capture a good bit of time value, and leave the short CALL spread to wither.

Faith and trust in the Holy One of Israel, good Jews and Noahides.

It’s all we have.

With kind regards,

Hugh L. O’Haynew

Follow @HughLOHaynew