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Escape From Egypt: Bond Market Ditches Pharaonic Death Mask – Flees to Promised Land! (TLT)

Posted on April 18, 2022

You cannot insulate yourself or run from the TRUTH forever…

You will ultimately have to make a reckoning with the facts.

The Jewish facts.

The TRUTH.

G-d is G-d and there is no other.

And while you’re at it, why not subscribe to A Jew and His Money.

Our one year memberships are now on sale at ridiculously low prices – but only until this Friday at midnight.

Check out your options HERE – before you’re mummified financially and drown in a Sea of Red.

Who needs that…?

Get yourself right before Shevi’i Shel Pesach and start earning thousands upon hundreds upon millions!

With the End of Days now upon us, YOU DON’T HAVE TIME TO DITHER.

Make your cash while the sun shines.

Because the plagues have already begun….

https://www.ajewandhismoney.com/membership/get-your-discounted-annual-membership/

———————————————

Good Jews and Noahides – the Al-mighty Lord G-d of Israel doesn’t play games.

Get yourself squared away financially using our lucrative, risk-defined option trading service and begin your preparations for a Third Temple existence.

You cannot afford the alternative!

And now for this week’s trade.

We’re playing the long bond today using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:TLT), because the bell is tolling, and throughout the land the first-born of Egypt lies dead in his bed-chamber.

That is, we’ve achieved threshold pain levels in the bond pits, and it’s now time to catch a falling hailstone.

What makes you think we’re there?

Part of our work at A Jew and His Money involves ‘intermarket analysis’, or studying the relationships that obtain between all three broad classes of investibles – stocks, bonds and commodities.

And it so happens that as we write, the vanguard of the commodities, oil, appears to have peaked and is about to roll lower.

 

Well, it so happens that oil also travels in direct opposition to the long bond, with highs in one generally marking lows in the other, and vice versa.

All of which bodes well for those who can craft an intelligent options trade that exploits the foregoing, minimizes risk, and offers a delicious repast of meat and wine to those willing to partake.

To that end, here is a chart of oil and the long bond slapped together for the last three years –

The point is: we’re presently at a moment of inflection, where we’ll likely get some gyrating and shaking while the two change direction and begin moving apart.

Now look at TLT for the last six months, paying close attention to the steepness of the latest decline.

Indeed, downside momentum is currently furious.

Here it is –

Technically speaking –

  1. We have price moving lower in a steep falling wedge formation (in red).  As soon as a break above the upper trendline occurs, we’ll see heavy buying.  That’s the way falling wedges work.  They’re reliable.
  2. At the same time, all the salient moving averages are unfurled and declining as of last week (in black).  That’s a long-term bearish signal, but – go figure – there’s a tendency to see strong counter-trend moves within days of such unfurlings.  We can’t explain it, but it recurs with enough frequency to be considered a phenomenon, and that certainly plays into our calculations as well.
  3. From the secular bear market lows of some eighteen years ago through the ETF’s all-time highs in 2020, a simple Fibonacci retracement calculation brings price to exactly 120 (in purple).  And whaddaya know: that’s PRECISELY where price closed last Friday (click HERE for theme from Twilight Zone).
  4. Finally, both RSI and MACD readings are approaching 13 month lows.  But that’s not all –

Not seen here, but worthy of mention are the following –

  • Monthly and Weekly RSI and MACD readings have never been lower in TLT’s nineteen-year history.
  • Monthly and Weekly volume numbers have never been higher in TLT’s nineteen-year history.
  • Price has never plumbed deeper below the stock’s Monthly and Weekly moving averages in TLT’s nineteen-year history.
  • And all that bodes well for a snap-back rally.
  • Oh, and did we mention the stock had a nineteen-year history…?

The set-up looks divine.

And our freedom from the chains of Egyptian bondage is all but secured.

So in a spirit of holiday-induced magnanimity the likes of which only the good Lord Himself possesses, we’re offering the following trade FREE to all our readers.

DAYENU!

And it goes like this –

A Jew and His Money recommends you consider buying the TLT June 17th 120/124 CALL spread* for $1.97 (4.80/2.83) and selling the TLT June 17th 123/119 PUT spread** for a credit of $1.85 (5.70/3.85).  Total debit on the trade is $0.12.

[*Buy the 120 CALL and sell the 124 CALL.  **Sell the 123 PUT and buy the 119 PUT.]

Rationale: it’s a good day when a $0.12 outlay buys you a $3.88 NET return.  That’s 3233%.

And it sure beats a bowl of Ramen noodles.

Max loss is $4.12 (difference between the PUT strikes plus the initial debit).

Breakeven comes at $121.62, just 0.68% above the stock’s current price.

And the full Abrahamic span of the Holy Land is attained with a gain of just 2.65%.

We love it.

Hope you will, too.

With kind regards,

Hugh L. O’Haynew

 

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