Posted on January 3, 2022
Today’s initiative is a remarkably wallet-friendly bet on Proctor & Gamble (NYSE:PG), world leaders in the beauty and grooming space.
But before we get there, we have one trade to report on.
It was our November 29th trade from Serf! You Are Nothing But a Data Point to Be Processed!, wherein we urged you to sell the ADP December 31st 225/230 CALL spread for a credit of $1.60 and buy the ADP December 31st 235/215 PUT spread for $8.55. Total debit was $6.95.
The trade closed last Friday eve, and we’re now on the hook for a full $11.95.
So we’re acting thus –
We’re setting the ADP May 20th 230 synthetic short* for a credit of $15.30 (23.50/8.20). That will flip our debit to a credit of $3.35 and allow us participation in the coming downside.
And now we get beautiful…
Of all the lies we’ve been led to believe, perhaps none is so insidious as the ‘personal hygiene’ deception.
Not that we’re against soap and water.
But all the smells and chemicals and synthetic detergents and treatments we submit to in the name of the “civilizing” urge, are not only gratuitous – they’re actually killing us.
P&G lives that lie daily, to the tune of a $393 million market cap.
But we’ve a hunch that number will be shrinking in the near term.
Consider the fundamentals –
Remember, this is just a manufacturer of retail stuff.
Now look at the chart –
On the technical front, we have the following –
But we don’t need such a steep decline to cash in wildly from this one.
Not even close.
Check it out –
A Jew and His Money recommends you consider selling the PG March 18th 160/165 CALL spread* for a credit of $2.55 (6.55/4.00) and buying the PG March 18th 165/160 PUT spread** for $2.50 (6.10/3.60). Total credit on the trade is a nickel.
Rationale: because of the formidable spreads on the March options, we’re paid (a nickel) to put on the trade, and that’s always a nice touch.
That gives us a maximum gain of $5.05 on zero outlay. Adjusted for basic commissions, the trade offers a gargantuan 3267% take.
Maximum loss is $4.95 (difference between the PUT strikes less the initial credit).
Our breakeven on the trade arrives at $162.45, just 0.7% lower than current price levels.
And that’s outright awesome.
If we’ve got the direction right.
And we think we do.
May the Lord, G-d of Israel grant us chein in abundance.
With kind regards,
Hugh L. O’Haynew