Posted on September 27, 2021
A very happy and meaningful Simchat Torah holiday to all you good Jews and Noahides.
We’ll be out of the office from noon today through Tuesday night (Jerusalem Standard Time).
Until then, you’re on your own.
We’re cutting straight to the chase today – because, face it – we need a nap!
The Sukkot holiday reminds you what a good schloof is all about.
Today, it’s all about Tempur Sealy International (NYSE:TPX), manufacturers of all things sleep-related (save Benadryl).
It’s our conviction that TPX is now overbought and ready to tip.
And the fundamentals concur.
The alleged reason for the current bedding brouhaha is that people are moving and buying new houses – or so the housing statistics tell us.
But we’ve a feeling there’s no real sustainable housing boom, and that everything related to the building, buying and furnishing spree is more hype than reality.
The housing market’s record-setting pace of the first half of 2021 is now floundering.
And a crash is more likely than a rebound.
Last quarter, Sealy’s earnings were strong, admittedly, but this is not a trend we see continuing.
Here’s the TPX daily chart year-to-date –
Technically, there is nothing here that screams SELL. Rather, we see a number of smaller puzzle pieces that, taken together, indicate a top is now likely forming.
In short, the bed-posts are rickety, friends, and the trade on offer is structured for maximum gains when the mattress eventually slips.
Like this –
A Jew and His Money recommends you consider selling the TPX December 17th 47.50/50.00 CALL spread* for a credit of $1.10 (4.40/3.30), and buying two (2) TPX December 17th 42.50/40.00 PUT spreads** for $0.55 each (1.20/0.65). Net Zero Premium is the result.
Rationale: We pay nothing for the trade and get a lopsided risk/reward profile in our favor.
To wit –
Patience will bear us fruit.
Along with trust in The Holy One of Israel.
Blessed be His holy name forever and ever.
And may the enemies of G-d endure bizarre deaths.
With kind regards,
Hugh L. O’Haynew