בס״ד

WIN/WIN: 2926% and 170%… Then We Push Our Blood-Sugar to the Limit! (TWNK, EXPO, AMD)

Posted on January 10, 2022

Back in early December, The Holy One of Israel granted us a 222% win on Hostess Inc. (NASDAQ:TWNK), and it appears He’s re-orchestrated events such that a repeat performance now lies in potentia.

But before we get there, we have two trades to close for wham-doggy profits.

The first is our EXPO affair, whose details can be found HERE.

In brief, we’re short one lot of EXPO shares with a breakeven at $108.10.

And with the shares now trading at $103.56, we’re recommending you take profits.

Repurchase the shares, and you walk with $4.54 on zero outlay.

Adjusted for minimal commissions gives you a tremendous 2926% return in a measly five months.

And that’s just divine.

NEXT!

No Fries – Chips! arrived at your inbox on December 2nd and urged you to sell the AMD February 18th 150/155 CALL spread for a credit of $1.80 and buy the AMD February 18th 150/140 PUT spread for $5.45.  Total debit on the affair was $3.65.

And now…?

With price at $132, we say it’s time to cash in.

How?

We’re selling the long CALL AND closing the PUT spread.

That is, sell the 155 CALL for $2.98, the 150 PUT for $21.55, and buy back the 140 PUT for $14.65.

That puts a total $9.88 in your pocket, and leaves you holding one short AMD February 18th 150 CALL.

That means we’re safe with any rise to $159.88 before expiry – an eventuality we don’t see happening.

But to cover ourselves, we’re setting a STOP buy order for one lot of AMD at $150 through February 18th.

That will cover us against any runaway upside loss.

Stay tuned, as a whipsaw at $150 could cause us a headache.

We’ll be watching…

In the meantime, hold tight to that $988 (if we catch it, it’s a 170% win!).

Today’s trade, as mentioned, is about junk food.

Hostess Brands makes Ding Dongs®, Donettes®, HoHos® and, of course, the iconic, edible petroleum-product known as the Twinkie® (with a shelf-life of 21 years!).

But We Repeat Ourselves…

Fundamentally, TWNK carries –

  • A sugary P/E of 26.20,
  • Pays no Dividend,
  • Has a Price to Book ratio of 1.57, and
  • Is owned by neither institution nor insider (actually, the latter hold a wee 0.39% stake in the company).

Now, does that give you spirit or succor?   Reassurance or relief?

We thought not.

Look at the chart –

Consider multiple units of the trade – if you’re believer, AND you can swing a big line.

And may the Host of Heaven be with us!

With kind regards,

Hugh L. O’Haynew

 

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