Posted on December 16, 2022
There’s no time to lose!
We start with our TR initiative from November 24th.
The letter was called Tasty, Yes. But OH! My Dentures, and it recommended you short sell one lot of TR for $43.29, buy a protective March 17th 45 CALL for $3.00 and 10 TR December 16th 40 PUTs for $0.45 each. Total credit on the trade was $35.79.
TR is heading lower, but not fast enough.
The stock closed last night at $43.49.
On any intraday weakness or toward the close, cash in your PUTs for whatever you can get—and who knows—maybe we’ll get a surprise!
We still have overhead protection in place for three months, so leave her be and we’ll take profits once we break below our $35.79 breakeven.
Our AJRD trade was dispatched on November 14th in a missive entitled Missile Maker on the Launch Pad, and ever since it has vectored in the wrong direction.
The trade had us sell the AJRD December 16th 45/50 CALL spread for $3.00 buy 4 AJRD December 16th 45 PUTs for $0.80 each. Total debit was $0.20.
Today, our CALL spread is in-the-money for the full amount, and we’re forced to act.
Set the AJRD February 17th 50 synthetic short* for a credit of $4.05 (5.60/1.55).
That reduces our debit to $1.15 and sets us up to profit from any downside.
On November 3rd Jews! Noahides! Lend Me Your Ears… arrived in your inbox, urging you to sell the NWL December 16th 14/12 PUT spread for a credit of $1.05 and buy three (3) NWL December 16th 14 CALLs for $0.35 each. Net zero premium was the result.
Today, NWL is trading at $13.20 and our PUT spread is in-the-money by $0.80.
Should we get intraday strength in the stock, offload your CALLs immediately, or, failing that, as the close approaches set the NWL March 17th 14 synthetic long* for a credit of $0.75 (1.55/0.80).
That gives us another three months to profit from the stock’s upside and reduces our debit to just $0.05.
Details of our BJ/VOD trade can be accessed HERE.
In brief, we’re holding a credit of $1.11 and one BJ 70/75 CALL spread expiring this eve.
With BJ opening this morning at $68.66 and S&P futures fixing to move lower, we say leave her be.
We’ll very likely walk with the full $1.11 on just two cents spent.
And that’s 5550%.
Good on ya if you went in big.
The Pile on Oil Trade delivered our SU initiative on September 29th.
There, we urged you to sell the SU December 16th 29/32 CALL spread for $1.05 and buy the SU December 16th 29/27 PUT spread for $1.10. Total debit was $0.05.
Today, SU opens at $30.55, meaning we’re on the hook for $1.55.
ACTION: on any intraday weakness or near the close, close the short CALL and long PUT and set the SU June 16th 29 synthetic PUT* for a credit of $1.40 (4.30/2.90).
That reduces our debit to $0.20 and allows us to participate in any decline.
Auto Wreck Scatters Car Parts Everyhere was our September 9th trade featuring GPC.
There, we recommended you sell the GPC December 16th 150/155 CALL spread for $2.20 and buy the GPC December 16th 150/145 PUT spread for $2.60. Total debit was $0.40.
We’re in the black for the full five points on the short CALL spread.
With GPC turning over and all signs pointing to a coming free-fall, we’re recommending you set the GPC January 20th 170 synthetic short* for a credit of $7.55 (9.90/2.35).
That will flip our debit to a credit of $2.15 and allow us to participate fully in the coming downside.
Our September 15th communiqué was called Stock Shock… and employed PCG shares as underlying.
We sold the PCG December 16th 13/14 CALL spread for $0.46 and bought the PCG December 16th 14/13 PUT spread for $0.55. Total debit was $0.09.
Our short CALL spread is now in-the-money for the full dollar, so we have to act.
Set the PCG March 17th 15 synthetic short* for a credit of $1.27 (1.88/0.61).
That converts our debit to a credit of $0.18 and gives us full downside exposure.
On August 8th Take a Long/Short Ride on The Indexes rang your doorbell, urging you to sell the DIA December 16th 335/340 CALL spread for $2.20 and buy the QQQ December 16th 335/340 CALL spread for $2.36. Total debit on the trade was $0.16.
As of the close tonight, it appears both spreads will close OTM and we’ll lose our original $0.16.
Not happy, but so be it.
Beats a kick in the teeth by a Clydesdale.
Details of our PPC trade can be found HERE.
All told, we’re holding a credit of $0.05 and an open, short 35 CALL expiring at the close.
With PPC at $23.44, we see we should have been more aggressive here. But such is life.
We exit with a nickel NET on an initial debit of $0.10.
Nominally 50%, but a milquetoast win.
Particulars on our TPOR/DUSL trade can be sourced HERE.
Bottom line is we’re holding a credit of $4.22 and two long CALLs that will expire OTM this eve (TPOR 39 and DUSL 39).
That means we bank $4.22 NET on an initial outlay of BUPKUS.
And that’s nice.
Our FCN trade, the details of which can be found HERE.
In brief, we’re holding the 125 synthetic short that expires tonight and a debit of $3.00.
We’re buying back our short CALL on weakness or before the close, and setting the FCN June 16th 125 synthetic short* for a credit of $35.20 (38.70/5.50).
That flips our debit to a credit of roughly $1.20 (more details after the close) and gives us half a year to participate in FCN’s decline.
Alan B. Harvard
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