בס״ד

December Options Expiry, Featuring a 1567% Profit (GPK, PZZA, TNET, VRSK, TPX, COST, CARR, SCI, XLU/XLF, FCN, KFY, FOXF, TTC, SAIA)

Posted on December 17, 2021

And we start with our GPK initiative, whose details can be found HERE.

To sum, we’re holding a $0.21 credit and a short 20.00/22.50 CALL spread expiring this eve.

With S&P futures heading lower at this time of writing AND GPK opening at $20.23, we say leave it.

There’s a very good chance we’ll end this one marginally in the black.

NEXT!

Our PZZA trade’s details can be found HERE.

We’ve got a synthetic short at 125 expiring this eve, along with a protective 130 CALL (also evaporating tonight) and a debit of $5.70.

With price at $129.03, we could be in the dumpster for another $4.00 – or thereabouts – at the close.  Again, though, futures are pointing lower.

Either way, we’re acting as follows –

Leave the CALL spread be and initiate the PZZA January 21st 120 synthetic short* for a credit of $7.05 (9.90/2.85).

That reduces our debit to roughly $2.70 (exact numbers available after the close) and gives us another month to profit from the downside.

[*Sell the CALL and buy the PUT.]

Capsizing Small Business Drowns Trinet got to you on October 14th and featured a play on TNET.

The trade recommended you sell the TNET December 17th 95/100 CALL spread for $2.30 and buy the TNET December 17th 100/95 PUT spread for $2.60.  Total debit on the trade was $0.30.

Today, TNET opens at $91.81, so it appears we’re headed for a man-sized score on the trade – the full $5.00 payout, that is.

You can close it early, if you feel the stock is reversing, but we’re going to leave her be.

It looks very much like a 1567% jackpot profit.

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Our VRSK trade was featured in Another Math Stooge Bites the Dust, wherein we urged the sale of the VRSK December 17th 200/210 CALL spread for $3.00 and purchase of the VRSK December 17th 200/190 PUT spread for $4.60.  Total debit on the trade was $1.60.

Today, VRSK opens well above our short CALL spread, indicating we’ll be on the hook for the full 10 points.

That said, we still love the trade, and therefore recommend you act as follows –

Set the VRSK March 18th 210 synthetic short* for a credit of $17.40 (22.90/5.50).  That will flip our debit to a credit of $5.80 and give us three months to profit from the coming downside.

[*Sell the CALL and buy the PUT.]

Tempur Sealy Infested With Bedbugs! Short-Sellers Itching For Blood! got to you on September 27th and featured a trade on TPX that recommended selling the TPX December 17th 47.50/50.00 CALL spread for a credit of $1.10 and buying two TPX December 17th 42.50/40.00 PUT spreads for $0.55 each.  Net Zero Premium was the result.

And the NULL SET is likely where it will end.

Leave it be.

It cost nothing to initiate, and price now sits between the two spreads at $46.38.

Full report next week.

YAHOO!

Moving Right Along…

On September 23rd we sent you A Costco Waterfall Looms, wherein we recommended you sell the COST December 17th 480/490 CALL spread for $1.70, and buy the December 17th 440/420 PUT spread for $6.15.  Total debit was $4.45.

With tonight’s expiry, we face the full ten point debit on the short CALL spread.

But we also love the downside potential here.

So we’re recommending as follows –

Set the COST March 18th 540 synthetic short* for a credit of $12.70 (35.70/23.00).

That will reduce our debit to $1.75 and allow us to participate in the full downside ahead.

[*Sell the CALL and buy the PUT.]

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On September 5th, Stock Market Hot, Stock Market Cold. Carrier Gets Plug Pulled bedazzled you.  The trade recommended you sell the CARR December 17th 55.00/57.50 CALL spread for a credit of $1.20 and buy the CARR December 17th 52.50/46.00 PUT spread for $1.20.  Net Zero Premium was the result

And now…?

Price is at $53.87, between the two spreads, and will likely end there.

Leave it be.

We’ll report next week.

Opening a Casket of Riches! was our August 19th bet on SCI, calling on you to sell the SCI December 17th 60/65 CALL spread for a credit of $2.50 and buy the SCI December 17th 65/60 PUT spread for $2.50.  Zero premium was the result.

Today, the trade will close above 65, putting us in the red by exactly $5.00.

We therefore have to act.  Thus –

Set the SCI March 18th 65 synthetic short* for a credit of $3.05 (5.40/2.35).

[*Sell the CALL and buy the PUT.]

One Half Already Closed…

Yesterday, we closed half our XLU/XLF initiative from Sector Standoff – How to Profit From Utility/Financial Extremitudes, in which we urged you to buy the XLU December 17th 70 CALL for $1.25 and buy the XLF 37/33 PUT spread for $1.40.  Total debit on the affair was $2.65.

From the XLU CALL, we earned $0.78, bringing our debit down to $1.87.

The XLF spread will almost certainly expire worthless, but, again, we like the bear story here, so we’re moving like this –

We’re selling the XLF February 18th 38 synthetic short* for a credit of $1.15 (2.21/1.06).

That reduces the debit to $0.72 and gives us a full two months to participate on the downside.

[*Sell the CALL and buy the PUT.]

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Our FCN initiative, the details of which can be sourced HERE, has us holding the December 17th 130 synthetic short, a debit of $1.57 and a protective December 17th 145 CALL.

While it’s still too early to tell, we see the full fifteen points being added to our debit (full details only after the close).

That means we’re also setting a synthetic short* on FCN – using the March 18th 135 strike – for a credit of $9.40 (14.30/4.90).

That will reduce the debit to $7.17 and open the path to profits on the downside.

Our KFY trade details can be found HERE.

The deal’s like this – we’re short one lot of stock with a breakeven at $54.91 and holding the 90 protective CALL that expires tonight.

The stock looks weak and should be headed lower, so hang on tight.

We’ll report again next week.

NEXT!

Details on our FOXF initiative are available HERE.

In short, we’ve got a credit of $1.94 on the trade and are holding one short 120 CALL expiring this eve.

The stock is now in a free-fall (down 5% yesterday), so we’re urging you to buy back the CALL today at the close for roughly $38.80 and sell the March 18th 120 CALL for roughly $42.60.

That will expand our credit to roughly $5.75.  Full details after the close.

All the particulars of our TTC trade can be accessed HERE.

We’re holding a credit of $8.15 and two short 85 CALLs that burn out tonight.

Buy back the CALLs at the close for roughly $14.00 and sell the TTC March 18th 85 CALLs for $15.10.

That will raise our credit to roughly $10.35.  Exact numbers, again, after the close.

And Last But Not Least…

Our SAIA trade has us holding a credit of $18.68 and three short 195 CALLs expiring tonight.

Buy them back at the close for roughly $116 and, in their place, sell three SAIA June 17th 200s for $115 each.

That will reduce our credit to $15.68, with exact numbers known after the bell.

May G-d Al-mighty – the G-d of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob – protect all good Jews and Noahides through this dark time.

Eschatologically yours,

Alan B. Harvard

 

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