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Important Note to Subscribers — 20 Lines Regarding ‘The Day After’

Posted on March 17, 2020

A few brief notes for the weeks ahead, based on the best information we ‘ve gathered and our own thorough assessment and experience –

  1. First, the chance of a short, sharp move higher in equities is great.
  2. The chance of a short sharp, move higher in the precious metals – almost nil.
  3. The techs will lead any move higher – though they may have another few days of weakness.
  4. The consumer staples and healthcare will lag significantly.
  5. Performance in fixed income will be middling to poor.
  6. High yield will thrive.
  7. Oil will be weak.
  8. Natural Gas could surprise with a bid.
  9. On the governmental front, look for immediate bailouts to help transports, financials, independent business people and farmers, among others.
  10. Look, too, for layoffs at all levels of government, as far as politics permits.
  11. Stock in nursing schools and first responder courses will shine.
  12. But education – as an industry in general – should be shorted.  (This is not the time to bribe the ping-pong coach at Princeton for the sake of young Aloysius).
  13. Virus deaths and the national response to them are now quickening but are still way behind the curve.
  14. Full lockdowns and closures in every major city are roughly one week away.  Stock up.
  15. Staying away from all people at all times will keep you alive and healthier.
  16. Wearing a mask and gloves as much as possible will keep your loved ones alive and healthier.
  17. Explanation: NO ONE knows if they’re currently carrying the virus and are thereby risking the lives of those around them.  The responsible among us will take it upon themselves to isolate, mask, and glove themselves to the greatest degree they’re able.  The crazier it appears, the better off everyone will be.  Just do it.  The lives of your loved ones depend on it.
  18. Three sigma events in the equity market – like we’ve had in the last week – will continue, though at a much diminished rate, and will make opening and closing of trades very challenging.
  19. Yesterday’s option market at various points early in the day, for example, WAS NOT OFFERING QUOTES for multiple products.
  20. The market broke, so to speak.  And not only during the 15 minute curb at the open.  For some time thereafter even the CBOE was not listing discrete spreads on options.

As we’ve mentioned to subscribers in the past, our posted trades will not always be available at the prices we list.  And according to the earful we received yesterday from some of you, that won’t always be satisfying.

We’ve had numerous meetings on this score, and frankly, we’re at a loss as to what to do.

It will be impossible to satisfy everyone on this front, as days like this cannot be predicted.

Yesterday’s ‘winning trade’, for example was decided upon after Friday’s close, when it was clear we had a substantial gain in hand, but long before we had any indication Monday’s open would be a limit-down affair.

As we recently wrote one subscriber,

Regarding entry and exit points — they’ll never match exactly what we post here.  But our experience in over three decades of doing this is that exactly half the time they’re better than what we post, and the other half they’re worse.  But more to the point: unless the market’s moving like it is these days, they’re usually pretty darn close.

We would only add that on our Scorecard page we offer subscribers the following caveat, and we do hope we’ll find favor in your eyes for having done so –

…We’ve calculated the profits on the trades below, knowing that either more or less pairs traded will change the P/L results dramatically.

and

 All percentages are calculated as precisely as possible, but timing and execution will affect outcomes.

It’s as transparent and honest as we can get.

And what’s more, in probably 95% of the trades we post, it’s irrelevant.

Markets rarely move as fast as they did yesterday.  The closing results on the Scorecard page are almost always an accurate reflection of prices obtained.  Sometimes you’ll do slightly better.  Sometimes slightly worse.

More than that – we know of no other service that posts all their trades openly in the manner we do.

To Sum –

We believe our trade results stand as a true representation of our experience, our ability as traders and the dedication and acumen of our investigative and research teams.

If someone missed a fill yesterday, we can understand their frustration.  It’s never pleasant.  We’re here, though, to discuss alternatives, offer suggestions and even commiserate.

A losing trade is a rarity at our service, but when it happens we own up.  Always.

A fast moving market is something beyond our control, though.

So if the trade isn’t available exactly when and how we recommend, we ask you to keep perspective.

Over the long haul, out track record is proven and will produce exactly the results you’re looking for as a trader operating in the most difficult of times.

Be patient.  Be in touch.  And keep perspective.

The End will bring great surprises – and even greater opportunities – if we remain cold in the face of crisis.

With love of Israel, we remain,

Eschatologically yours,

Alan B. Harvard

 

2 responses to “Important Note to Subscribers — 20 Lines Regarding ‘The Day After’”

  1. M T says:

    Appreciate these.
    There are rare and precious opportunities in front of us all. Take us there.

    If people are blaming you for missing fills on days like yesterday they’ve got other problems.

    Random comments:
    Natgas bid would tickle my holdings pink
    Can we sell vol yet?
    What awesomeness is in store to repair the X?
    If we have a full shut down, where in tarnation is the brisket going to come from?

    • Alan B. Harvard says:

      MT, you’re a gem!
      Selling vol could make for some big winnings at this stage, though many a short has been served his head on a broad, pewter brisket platter!
      X repair in the works.
      Keep in touch — but don’t touch.
      Alan

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