January OpEx and BIG 983% Win Confirmed – (CHD, APD, F, PZZA, UPS, XLF, BLDR, IBP, BG, CROX, DE, SHOP, UNG)

Lots to do, so let’s get it rolling…!

Our CHD trade arrived on December 9^th in a letter called You Can’t Clean That With Soap, and urged you to sell the CHD January 21^st 95/100 CALL spread for $1.70 and buy the CHD January 21^st 95/90 PUT spread for $2.10.  Total debit on the affair was $0.40.

Today, with the momentum on the stock clearly downward, and our breakeven in sight, we’re recommending you leave this one be, AND sell the CHD February 18^th 100/105 CALL spread for a credit of $1.95 (4.00/2.05).

That will offer us some further insurance against a small loss, and flip our debit to a credit of $1.55.

Actual details won’t be known until after the close.

We’ll revisit on Monday.

NEXT!

We closed most of our APD trade on December 21^st, but the CALL spread was left open.

And a good thing, too.

Failing an asteroid striking the Statue of Liberty, the CALL spread will expire worthless this eve, and we’ll keep our 983% gain.

On to our Ford trade, opened November 8^th in Hey! Look at That Ford Swerve!  There, we recommended a short sale of F at $19.29, and the purchase of protective F January 21^st 24 CALL for $0.49.  Total credit on the trade was $18.80.

And now?

With Ford in a freefall (now at $21.65), and the CALL about to expire worthless, we face a $2.85 shortfall on the trade.

And yet the chart speaks to ample downside to come.

Sooo….

We’re recommending you sit tight, set a STOP buy order on the shares for 30 days hence at $25 to protect against any runaway loss, and continue to watch the action.

As will we.

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Details on our PZZA trade can be found HERE.

In brief, we’re holding a debit of $3.65 and the 120 synthetic short expiring tonight.

With the shares now at $114.71 and poised to fall further, we recommend you leave her be.

We’re nicely in-the-money.

We’ll know our exact take after the close.

Our UPS trade details can be accessed HERE and reveal the following –

We’re short one lot of UPS with a breakeven of $178.20 and are holding a long UPS January 21^st 210 CALL.

The long CALL will almost certainly expire worthless this eve, and the question is whether we want to buy more protection.

For the meantime, we say no.

Set a STOP buy for 30 days at 215 and watch the action.

Momentum is decidedly lower, and we’ve a strong hunch we’ll hit our breakeven by mid-week next.

Keep ‘er Rolling!

Our XLF trade needs help.

We’re short the shares with a breakeven at $31.85 and are holding a protective January 21^st 41 CALL.

The long CALL will expire worthless this eve, and with the market under extreme pressure we’re foregoing buying another one.

Place a STOP buy order for XLF at 42 for 30 days, and keep an eye.

Our BLDR initiative’s particulars are available HERE.

To sum, we’re holding the January 21^st synthetic short at 32 and a credit of $1.19.

The short 32 CALL will end up in-the-money this eve, so we recommend you buy it back at the close for roughly $36 (full details after the close) and sell two (2) BLDR August 19^th 55 CALLs for $18.20 each.

Final tally available next week.

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Our IBP trade numbers are found HERE.

The skinny on this one is as follows –

We’ve got a credit in hand of $4.01 and are short two 90 CALLs expiring tonight.

Buy them back at the close and sell two IBP June 17^th 90 CALLs for roughly $22 each.

That should add roughly $7.00 to our credit, bringing it to $11.00.

Full details, as usual, after the close.

Our bet on BG, along with all her pertinent details can be accessed HERE.

In brief, we’ve got a credit of $8.41 and are short two (2) January 21^st 57.50 CALLs.

With momentum here strongly lower, we’re recommending you repurchase the CALLs at the close and sell two (2) BG July 15^th 55 CALLs for roughly $39 each.

That will raise our credit to the $10 range, with full details to be known after the close.

And…

CROX shares have declined nearly 40% from their mid-November highs and are looking ready to give back more.

Our CROX position is as follows –

We’ve got a credit of $19.36 and are short two (2) 70 CALLs expiring tonight.

And we’re acting thus – buy back the CALLs at the close and sell two CROX June 17^th 75 CALLs for roughly $34 each.

We’ll know exact numbers after trading ceases, but that should reduce our credit to the $15.00 range.

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Our DE trade’s details can be found HERE, and tell the following story –

We’ve got a healthy credit of $22.08 and are holding two short DE 320 CALLs expiring today.

Action: buy back the 320’s at the close and sell two DE June 17^th 330 CALLs for roughly $50 each.

That should expand our credit to roughly $23.00, with a more precise accounting after the close.

SHOP shares have collapsed by better than 40% since their highs in mid-November.  And they aren’t ready to stop now.

Our SHOP trade details can be found HERE.

In short, we’re holding a $2.20 credit and are short three (3) January 21st 860 CALLs.

Buy them back at the close and sell three SHOP July 15^th 960 CALLs for roughly $172 each.

That will add some $6.00 to our credit, bringing it to $8.20 (full details after the close).

And lastly…

Finally, we arrive at our UNG trade, whose details can be found HERE.

Basically, we’re holding a credit of $1.24 and are short one January 21^st 23 PUT.

Action: buy back the PUT for $10.30 and sell the UNG January 20^th  (2023) 22 PUT for $10.10.

That will reduce our credit to $1.04 and extend the term of the trade.

All Praise the Holy One, Blessed Be He.

Eschatologically yours,

Alan B. Harvard

 

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