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TRADE BULLETIN: October Expiry – Action Required (TGT, MKC, TTC, BBY, GLD, FIZZ, SAIA, TSCO)

Posted on October 16, 2020

The following trades are expiring at today’s close.

Please pay special attention to the strikes and dates of each fix.

  • First up is our October 5th TGT trade.  It will close today with our max loss of $2.50 accrued.  We recommend you sell the October 30th 157.50/162.50 CALL spread for $3.45 (8.70/5.25) to ‘extend’ the trade another two weeks and change our initial $0.27 debit to a credit of $0.68.

  • Next, is our MKC wager from October 1st.  Again, the short MKC October 16th 185/190 CALL spread will accrue the maximum loss of $5.00 at the close.  We’re recommending you sell the MKC November 20th 185/195 CALL spread for $6.80 (15.90/9.10) to buy another month and change your initial $0.55 credit to $2.35.
  • Our TTC trade was opened September 17th and will close this eve with the max $5.00 loss. We recommend you sell the TTC November 20th 80/90 CALL spread for $6.10, again, to ‘buy’ the trade another month and change the $0.15 credit to $1.25.
  • BBY was the underlying on our September 14th endeavor, and it now needs fixing. Maximum loss of $5.00 will be triggered at the close.  We suggest selling the BBY November 20th 111/121 CALL spread for $6.10.  That affords us another month and changes our initial $0.27 debit to a potential credit of $1.37 [correction: $0.83].
  • Our GLD initiative from September 7th is doing fine, but our protective 182 CALL is expiring. We urge you, therefore, to sell it for $0.05 and buy the October 30th 179 CALL for $2.33 to replace it.  Your adjusted breakeven for the trade becomes $174.61 (current price of underlying – $178.92).

  • We traded FIZZ on September 2nd and the long 80 PUT is expiring tonight. With futures now flat to lower, we’re recommending you sell it for whatever you can and buy the November 20th FIZZ 75 PUT for $3.20.  FIZZ is headed lower and the PUT should help cover our already existing $13.70 debit.
  • On September 18th we rolled our SAIA trade and it has not been successful. Facing the loss of our initial premium, and still convinced that SAIA has topped, we’re recommending the following aggressive action.  Buy the March 19th SAIA 145 PUT for $16.80 and sell the March 19th SAIA 145 CALL for $16.60 to create a synthetic short.  Total debit on the play is $0.20.  You’ll need to have a STOP BUY order for the stock in place in the event of a price rise.  We recommend just above the latest highs at $152.50.
  • At the close, our TSCO trade from May 21st will see the max loss ($5.00) on the 105/110 CALL spread. We recommend you buy the TSCO November 20th 155/135 PUT spread for $7.90 (9.30/1.40) to extend the trade and give TSCO another month to turn over.  Should the trade succeed, our existing $5.40 debit will become an $11.70 [correction: $6.70] credit.

Eschatologically yours,

Alan B. Harvard

2 responses to “TRADE BULLETIN: October Expiry – Action Required (TGT, MKC, TTC, BBY, GLD, FIZZ, SAIA, TSCO)”

  1. Jim Rodgers says:

    Hello Alan,
    On the MKC, how did you come up with $2.35 credit?

  2. Alan B. Harvard says:

    Hi Jim,
    Quick review —
    The trade opened with a $0.55 credit (see here: https://www.ajewandhismoney.com/a-jew-and-his-gold/613-winner-on-your-festival-of-food-mkcwpm-gld/).
    It closed with a loss of $5.00 last Friday, and we simultaneously recommended selling a CALL spread for $6.80 (see here: https://www.ajewandhismoney.com/climbing-the-wall-of-redemption/trade-bulletin-october-expiry-action-required-mkc-ttc-bby-gld-fizz-saia-tsco/).
    So, to sum:
    $0.55 – $5.00 + $6.80 = +$2.35
    Hope that clears it up.
    All the best,
    Alan

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