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TRADE BULLETIN – Rosh HaShana Edition (WING, FIZZ, APPS, CLX, OKTA, MO/SAM, SAIA)

Posted on September 18, 2020

Final missive of the year, friends.

May this next swing about the sun bring us ample health, wealth and good tidings.

Now down to business.

Closing today is our FIZZ initiative, opened on September 2nd, that had you sell the FIZZ September 18th 80 straddle for $12.40 and buy the FIZZ October 16th 80 straddle for $19.40.  Total debit was $7.00.

Today, we’re facing a conundrum.  Because FIZZ moved swiftly – and is in the process of making an even stronger decline – we see wisdom in a partial closure of the trade.

  1. To begin, sell the long October 80 CALL at the open for $1.70.
  2. Then buy back the short September 80 PUT for $8.40.
  3. Finally, let the long October 80 PUT ride.  Its current value is $9.90, and we’re expecting more.

NEXT!

Our APPS trade from August 25th faces a similar issue.  The trade recommended selling the APPS September 18th 25 straddle for $4.35 and buying October 16th 25 straddle for $6.90.  Total debit was $2.55.

Now, after moving strongly higher, we’re moving for a partial closure here, too.

  1. Buy back the September 25 CALL for $7.60, and
  2. Sell the October 25 CALL for $8.10.
  3. We’re going to leave the October PUT in play with the expectation of a significant pullback before expiry.

——————————————————————–

Our Clorox trade arrived at your doorstep on August 16th and beseeched you to sell the CLX September 18th 240 CALL for $1.40 and purchase two (2) CLX September 18th 200 PUTs for $0.70 each.  Zero premium was the result.

Unless we get some immediate downside action today, this one looks to expire worthless – no loss, no gain.

With CLX set to open just under $207, your best chance at snagging something will likely occur on a strong drop at the open.  Keep your eyes peeled for it.

Our OKTA trade has been a frustrator from the get-go.  Opened on May 27th, it recommended buying the OKTA September 18th 170 PUT for $14.60 and selling both the OKTA September 18th 155 PUT for $8.50 and the OKTA September 18th 130 PUT for $3.50.  Total debit on the trade was $2.60.

 

The chart shows a stock currently in the process of breaking down – just not fast enough for us.

We see little that can be done to save our initial credit, save reinstating the trade.

But that’s not for today.

We’re chalking this one up as a rare loss.  It hurts, but we learned something.

More on that next week.

Our WING trade, all the details of which can be found here, will close OTM today with a profit of $0.45.

Move Along!

On May 3rd we set a MO/SAM pairing with a debit of $0.75 that delivered $3.75 on the sale of our MO CALLs.

With the SAM spread set to expire today ITM, you’ll be in a debit position at the close of $7.00 (-$10 from SAM, +$3 from MO).

We therefore recommend you sell three (3) SAM October 16th 1100 CALLs for $2.90 each.

With G-d’s help, on expiry, you’ll see a credit of $1.70 for the trade.

Finally, we arrive at our July 16th offering on SAIA that recommended you buy the September 18th SAIA 145 straddle for $28.90.

With the stock at $130, the long 145 PUT is currently ITM, but not by enough.

We’re therefore recommending you buy the October 16th 135 PUT for $10.30 with the proceeds from the 145 PUT – which should be in the neighborhood of $15.00 at the close.

In so doing, you reduce your initial debit to 25.00 and buy a month of play.

The Day of Judgment is upon us.

May the Lord Reign For Ever and Ever!

Eschatologically yours,

Alan B. Harvard

2 responses to “TRADE BULLETIN – Rosh HaShana Edition (WING, FIZZ, APPS, CLX, OKTA, MO/SAM, SAIA)”

  1. Jim Rodgers says:

    at 12:30p sam oct 16 call @ .95 bid.
    should you still sell or forget it?

  2. Alan B. Harvard says:

    bs’d
    Hi Jim,
    Forgive us; we’re just getting to this now.
    At the same time, we can’t see a SAM option of the type you mentioned that would fit with our recommendation.
    Were you referring to another trade? SAIA, maybe?
    Alan

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